Investors endured another volatile five-day stretch as the combination of trade uncertainty, plunging global bond yields, and conflicting messages between the United States and global economies further pressured stock prices. It may seem hard to believe that the S&P 500 Index achieved record levels just three weeks ago, but that speaks to the curious nature of the current market dynamics, along with the seasonal weakness typically associated with the Dog Days of Summer, as August and September historically deliver the weakest monthly returns for the equity markets.
Indeed, the current volatility presents many concerns for investors. Trade uncertainty weighs on sentiment, as businesses delay capital expenditures until clarity emerges on the logistics of their future supply chains. In turn, consumers may feel threatened by the potential for tariff-induced price pressures, yet that has failed to show up in recent spending and confidence measures. The inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, where short-term rates have exceeded those of several longer-term rates, has historically preceded recessions in the United States. Finally, recent economic data in the U.K., China, and Germany was weaker than forecast, resulting in significantly lower global interest rates.
The combination of these concerns pushed the major domestic equity market indexes down by approximately 3% over the past five trading days, bringing the markets down about 6% from their late-July record levels. Large caps have outperformed small caps, and the likelihood of easier monetary conditions in the months ahead further propelled the growth style of investing to outperform value.
The disappointing economic data coming from Europe, particularly in the U.K. and Germany, resulted in the developed markets slightly underperforming the emerging space. The year-to-date trend, though, continues to indicate momentum for developed markets.
The global uncertainties and the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve resulted in a global push for safe havens, enabling bonds to catch more bids last week, building on their year-to-date gains.
While global economic data is clearly weakening, we do not believe the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve portends imminent recession. Instead, we view the global demand for U.S. bonds as a bid for quality and relative valuation. To be sure, global investors are faced with a choice: purchase negative yielding sovereign bonds from Germany and Japan, or buy “less expensive” paper in the United States, where relative valuations remain attractive despite record or near-record low yields.
The global pursuit for quality and yield is also evident in the performance of the U.S. dollar. Despite the Federal Reserve’s intentions to lower interest rates and the rising “twin deficits” of trade and budget, the trade-weighted dollar continued to climb last week.
In another surprising development, and a signal of the excess global liquidity, commodities like oil and gold, priced in dollars, rose over the past five trading days. The weaker than expected economic data out of China and concerns regarding global growth continued to pressure copper prices.
###
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance the products or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set may not develop as predicted.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. Sector data is represented by S&P 500 GICS sub-indexes.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
For a list of descriptions of the indexes referenced in this publication, please visit our website at lplresearch.com/definitions.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC). Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
If your advisor is located at a bank or credit union, please note that the bank/credit union is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. Registered representatives of LPL may also be employees of the bank/credit union. These products and services are being offered through LPL or its affiliates, which are separate entities from, and not affiliates of, the bank/credit union. Securities and insurance offered through LPL or its affiliates are:
Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value
Tracking # 1-883944 (Exp. 08/20)